Look ahead to the geopolitical events that will shape your world in 2021. As 2021 approaches, here are ten trends to watch in the year ahead. Every year in January, Eurasia Group , KPMG's Global Alliance partner, publishes its Top Risks report which forecasts key geopolitical risks for the year ahead. Leaders will set the tone for domestic policies for the rest of the year, and the NPC will approve a new Five-Year Plan for economic and social development in the 2021-25 period. As well as … The new year begins with good news of vaccine. Body. COVAX alliances will start to distribute vaccines to third world countries. Continued development of the dam will increase tensions between Egypt and Ethiopia. Given President Vladimir Putin’s declining approval ratings and growing public discontent with the economic slowdown, the elections will be a significant test for Putin and put pressure on political stability. Foreign criticism of the government’s handling of the polls could fuel tensions between China and other countries. resident Bashar al-Assad will seek to re-legitimise his leadership. December 27, 2020. Continued political deadlock and economic distress in Lebanon will lead to an emotional anniversary, as well as the potential for significant protests and unrest. GPF is non-ideological, analyzes the world and forecasts the future using geopolitics: political, economic, military and geographic dimensions at the foundation of a nation. But a fragmented and competitive exit from the pandemic will test relations between business, governments and society. Geopolitical Futures (GPF) was founded in 2015 by George Friedman, international strategist and author of The Storm Before the Calm and The Next 100 Years. With the UK officially no longer part of the EU, prepare to monitor future regulatory changes and disruption as the UK negotiates new trading terms with various international partners. US – China: Stabilization without Normalization. The Committee may provide indications that CPC General Secretary Xi Jinping is planning to break with convention at the 2022 congress by remaining in power beyond his second five-year term. Published. The elections will decide Chancellor Angela Merkel’s successor, with implications for EU unity as well as EU trade, environment and foreign policy. Elections in Hong Kong are currently scheduled for September, but highly likely to be delayed due to planned electoral reforms. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has seen his ambitious reform agenda hindered by widespread ethnic violence, political tensions and internal conflict with the Tigray regional state. The pandemic had brought the African IT sector a significant growth. Businesses should anticipate heightened political sensitivities in the run-up to and during the anniversary celebrations, with pressure on officials to avoid controversy or disruption. Looking abroad it will be hard for EU to pick up sides in US – China tensions. Long Covid-19 & Fight over Vaccine. The position of Boris Johnson is also threatened as he seems to move away from conservative party from Brexit policies. At present the biggest geopolitical issue is likely to be the situation between the UK and Ireland and the status and treatment of Northern Ireland. Economic & Geopolitical Outlook 2021 Economic & Geopolitical Outlook 2021. Companies should consider alternative scenarios and assess any resultant political or regulatory risk. With President Joe Biden in office in the US, the prospects for its renewal are significantly improved. Assess the impact of government and economic instability as fallout from COVID and Brexit dominate. Companies should continue to monitor triggers for potential political instability. Geopolitical and Macroeconomic impact of the December 2021 Total Solar Eclipse. Shifting US foreign policies on everything from trade to aid have created uncertainty among our allies, and has contributed to a deceleration in global growth and … The post Brexit transition period is over and UK is fully outside of EU’s structures. For instance, how geopolitical dynamics in the Indo-Pacific and the EU’s pursuit of strategic autonomy play out in 2021 is likely to affect the global business environment for years to come. The number 21 is connected to luck, risks, taking chances, opportunities & rolling the dice. For instance, how geopolitical dynamics in the Indo-Pacific and the EU’s pursuit of strategic autonomy play out in 2021 is likely to affect the global business environment for years to come. On 20 Jan 2021 President Joe Biden occupied the Oval Office. If the vaccine rollout proceeds as hoped, Biden may win some political capital. The global COVID-19 situation, rollout of vaccines, geopolitical trends, Union Budget and economic recovery would be the major factors driving investor sentiments in 2021 after a tumultuous year which saw both 'the worst of times and the best of times' for the stock market, said analysts. EU’s powerhouses; France committed in its own issues with Turkey and fears of Islamophobia and with the departure of German Chancellor Merkel 2021 will be difficult for EU. This is particularly important in the current environment, in which COVID-19 is acting as a great accelerator for geopolitical trends. As 2021 approaches, here are top geopolitical and security trends to follow in 2021. The three key trends we believe will shape 2021 are Recovering from COVID-19 : As in times of war, the rules of the game are simply different during a global pandemic. The opposition will likely capitalise on the current government’s dwindling popularity and increase its seats in both houses in Congress. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) can be a “game-changer,” but a lot more have to be done to refine the policies in 2021. Long Covid-19 & Fight over Vaccine. The potential for increased activity by the armed opposition will raise the likelihood of additional sanctions by the US/EU. Three geopolitical themes shaping the post-COVID-19 world. The Perch Perspectives 2021 Forecast is divided into three distinct parts: macro trends, countries, and elections. Re-assess conflict scenarios and expect potential further ballistic missile tests and escalation of rhetoric. The highly fragmented campaign points to further political instability. After COVID-19 forced postponement of the Summer Olympic Games in 2020, the government, organisers, sponsors, and participating countries are likely to face difficult decisions in the run-up to the Games as the pandemic persists. Find predictions, insights and analysis on global outlook, markets and geopolitics. Recovery elsewhere is expected to be uneven, with much of the world not reaching pre-pandemic GDP levels until 2022, including probably the United States and Europe. The summit is expected to focus on socioeconomic recovery from the pandemic and fighting climate change. These will be the fourth parliamentary elections for Israel in two years. Companies involved should monitor the pandemic outlook for Japan and plan for potential disruption. April 7 – Reserve Bank of India makes its interest rate decision. A combination of low-probability, high-impact risks and inexorable technology trends make 2021 the year that cyber conflict will create unprecedented technological and geopolitical risk. COVID permitting, China will hold national celebrations on a very grand scale. Businesses should assess new climate pledges made by countries in the months leading up to the conference and understand the pace and reach of any regulatory changes as a result of these pledges. In 2021, we expect global interconnectivity and the very architecture of the internet to come under significant stress – not just from increased usage, but from fundamental rifts in the world’s technology infrastructure. As an example, the state of the EU’s pursuit of strategic autonomy and the geopolitical dynamics in the Indo-Pacific in 2021 will likely affect the global business environment for several years to come. The US-China rivalry will loom over global business in 2021. Businesses that rely on government contracts should expect delays due to the government’s inability to pass a state budget. Dambisa Moyo explains the impacts of macroeconomic, geopolitical, and social trends that are prevalent today, especially the decrease of GDP. In case of China the only difference that President Biden makes is change of tone rest all is same or may be tougher. Geopolitical and Macroeconomic impact of Jupiter Ingress into Pisces in 2021. Welcome to the world in 2021. We look ahead to America’s presidential inauguration, Germany’s & Iran’s new leaders, post Brexit UK & EU, and, of course, the world’s response, in business, politics, economics, climate change, and medicine, to the coronavirus pandemic. Key trends include regional economic downturns in most key markets apart from China, as the full impact of Covid’s cost hits, heightened use of key global summits to re-establish US influence, possibly leading to increased trade and global health policy tensions. These were the top trends selected by analysing the geostrategic policies, national interests of superpowers and other intangible factors. People are optimistic that life will be back to normal. Every year in January, Eurasia Group, KPMG's Global Alliance partner, publishes its Top Risks report which forecasts key geopolitical risks for the year ahead. There is no official date for Kim Jong Un’s accession to power after the death of his father, and no well-established practice for marking it or his father’s death. Description. Following a tumultuous 2020 for the post-Soviet region in which major crises emerged in several countries, simultaneous parliamentary elections in Kazakhstan and early presidential elections in Kyrgyzstan amid a COVID-induced economic slowdown could prompt unrest and instability, setting the tone for another year of upheaval. Geopolitical tensions will continue to escalate over the course of the next seven years. The six-year anniversary of the Saudi-led coalition’s intervention in Yemen could trigger a renewed push by the UN to broker peace but may also bring renewed scrutiny by the US of Saudi Arabia’s participation in the conflict. Organisations should assess potential regulatory implications of alternative scenarios for Japan’s future political trajectory, including a potential return to more unstable ruling coalitions. Geopolitical trends and forecasts Middle East and North Africa. Biden is also starting negotiations to join Nuclear Deal (JCPOA). Even as the data-driven 5G and AI revolutions gain steam, other governments concerned about who is accessing their citizens’ data—and how—will erode the foundation of the open global internet. Assess scenarios for Somalia’s future as a potential investment destination. 1 Fights over vaccines. Companies should assess any potential implications for social stability, as well as for India’s relations with Bangladesh. April 7 – Composite and Services PMI data released in United Kingdom. Re-evaluate scenarios for the outlook of geopolitical security in the region following the change of power in the White House and expect a potential spike in state-sponsored cyber attacks. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina will likely signal her succession plans. The new year will start with mobilization of a … While this will not lead to armed conflict, these tensions have already led to cyber attacks and could have ramifications for both countries’ wider international relations. The elections will be a key test of his authority and his commitment to political reforms despite the challenges and will give potential investors an indication of whether Ethiopia can still live up to its huge investment potential. The Central Committee plenum for the Communist Party of China is an important annual leadership meeting that will be particularly significant in 2021. Seasoned Macro Economist and Strategist Christian Takushi offers a compact and efficient online seminar, where Christian business leaders as well as church/ministry leaders can ask their questions. The geopolitical environment in 2021 will be shaped by two global developments: the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic and the efforts by U.S. President-elect Joe Biden's administration to restore collaborative relationships across the globe. 2020 will likely bear witness to Washington’s continued retreat from multilateralism on a gradual but steady glide path toward moderate isolationism. The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party will likely play up Hindu nationalist themes in Assam and West Bengal. The first presidential and parliamentary elections since the 2019 protest wave will shape the country’s outlook for the following four years and beyond. An inflection point is coming between business and climate change in 2021. Failure to hold them would be a significant backwards step for Somalia’s prospects. Governments and institutions will be tested by considerable challenges over the next decade as the international order is restructured and global trends converge.. All forms of government in every region will face increasing tensions both domestic and foreign. EU have set goals to achieve net zero emission by 2050, china by 2060. ... Options for investor migrants are likely to proliferate in 2021 in response to the growing demand, particularly in emerging markets. Global GDP growth in 2021 is projected at 4-5%, with China contributing roughly one-third of that growth. But a fragmented and competitive exit from the pandemic will test relations between business, governments and society. With Brexit done and dusted, Covid-19 vaccine is on its way and predicted President in the Oval office, 2021 should by rights be an easier year for EU. This year's report is available here. Ties with Russia, Beijing & Tehran, which have deteriorated rapidly under Trump, are also likely to be a particular focus in 2021. After a major tightening of Beijing’s control over the territory since 2020, including cracking down on opposition politicians and activists, if and how elections in Hong Kong proceed will be highly contentious. Biden will mend relations with its allies to wage trade war and Beijing will pursue its ambitious goals. Elections in Somalia have been repeatedly delayed and once again failed to take place in December 2020 amid disputes between central and regional governments. Americas ... Key Trends for 2021. Companies should assess their exposure to such risks and seek to understand likely post-electoral changes in policy direction, depending on which candidates are elected. Geopolitical competition in Africa has been intensifying, with private-sector investors increasingly finding that the competitive landscape is shaped by geopolitics. After meeting the domestic tumults of Covid both countries will again come face to face. As an example, the state of the EU’s pursuit of strategic autonomy and the geopolitical dynamics in the Indo-Pacific in 2021 will likely affect the global business environment for several years to come. These will likely set tone for Pyongyang’s foreign policy in the Biden era after unprecedented engagement with Trump in 2018-19. In a world where the reduction of trade barriers has slowed or even reversed, Africa’s commitment to free trade will make the continent an increasingly attractive investment destination. One way or another, 2021 will be the year that this matter finally moves on and the continent will discover what problems translate from the theoretical to reality once the final details crystallise. Africa’s market has advantage in 2021 and beyond because it is the continent least affected by Covid-19. April 7 – Composite and Services PMI data released in United Kingdom. Let’s see how COVAX alliances will be formed. Businesses should monitor declarations leading up to the anniversary and assess the likelihood and impact of potential protests or conflict flare-ups. Geopolitical and Macroeconomic impact of Saturn-Uranus Square alignment in 2021. The center of attention in 2021, as in 2020, will certainly be Libya. The dry season in the Amazon rainforest is likely to drive deforestation rates upwards again, renewing concerns about ESG risks and increasing reputational scrutiny on companies operating in the region. Italy as host wants to prioritise gender equality and sustainable development, with a particular emphasis on Africa. Read the risk Poor Nations will try to domestically develop or diplomatically arrange the vaccine. The president faces more domestic issues than external. However, the younger Kim marking a decade in power will be a significant milestone, which he could choose to highlight with major events, propaganda or weapons tests. Prepare for operational disruption from potential widespread unrest, as well as increased reputational and sanctions risks in the event of a heavy-handed response by security forces, which would attract criticism from the US and Europe. Regional Mobility Trends. Re-assess your political exposure and hedge where possible. Companies should assess and monitor how geopolitical relations with China may impact deals and financing in their sector of operation. Share: Image. But increase in connectivity comes with certain threats. Russia is likely to protest the exercise as a provocation. The 2021 Vision Book is the ultimate guide for business professionals. Countries have planned to ban fuelled vehicles, Netherland by 2025, France by 2030 & UK by 2040. There are many opportunities in Post Covid-19 world but first the world leaders should unite to fight the Covid-19 for humanity keeping their own interests beside. The risks will affect local, state-owned and private companies, and, in some instances, their foreign partners and investors. The calm and pragmatism with which the Russia has reacted to instability in Belarus, Armenia, Georgia, Moldova, may not last through 2021. The Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV) will convene its five-yearly Congress and confirm its new political leadership. Companies should monitor monetary and fiscal policy and evaluate sovereign risks. The countries in Southeast Asia will have to choose the sides more wisely whereas Europe and MENA will try to stay neutral. A robust foreign policy is necessary to overthrow Trump’s “America First” projection retreat from international & multilateral institutions such as NATO. 2021 trends include: the growth of racially & ethnically motivated terrorism, violent anti-government extremism, great power competition and COVID19. Ten years after the revolution that led to the overthrow of Mubarak, signs of unrest are reappearing amid poor economic conditions and repression of freedom of expression. Now question arises that will London position itself as a low-regulation, low-tax centre, or will it prioritize legislation to protect British businesses? The FOCAC summit will provide a clear indication of how China – one of the largest players in Africa – intends to approach the continent and whether the pandemic has changed this approach. The Macroeconomic, Geopolitical, and Social Trends Defining Our World | Dambisa Moyo | February 2021 Next Devotional: Elder Gary E. Stevenson Elder Gary E. Stevenson, a member of the Quorum of the Twelve Apostles of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, will deliver the devotional address on Tuesday, March 2, at 11:05 a.m. Monitor social sentiment and plan for continued political and regulatory change in the next year. With President Joe Biden in office in the US, the prospects for its renewal are significantly improved. UK post-Brexit: The beginning after the end. These elections will mark a crossroads, resulting in either the advent of a more business-friendly opposition administration, or marking a further erosion of Zambia’s democratic reputation if widespread vote rigging occurs. Companies should seek to understand how this direction is likely to impact their business strategy for China over the next few years in terms of political and regulatory risk. The incoming administration is likely to face a splintered congress, and populist reform proposals may pose risks to the business environment. In 2021, climate related geopolitical risks are most likely to accelerate along two trend lines: 1) regulatory or legislative changes aimed at fossil fuel intensive industries, and 2) extreme weather events that disrupt supply chains and upend infrastructure. On this episode of the BlackRock Bottom Line, Catherine Kress, Advisor to the Chairman of the BlackRock Investment Institute, highlights three themes that will shape the post-COVID-19 world. Businesses should seek to understand alternative scenarios for security in the Korean peninsula and any security or business implications these might trigger. Considering a notable reduction in ceasefire violations in eastern Ukraine in late 2020, the summit could yield some progress in the peace talks. From witnessing gigantic losses to record-shattering gains, investors went on a roller-coaster ride amid pandemic. Monitor key regulatory trends relevant to businesses, including on environmental regulation, economic stimulus and pandemic management. Sri Lanka’s ability and political will to service this debt will signal the country’s overall commitment to external liabilities. The Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei also thinks that it will best serve Iran’s security and economic interests. ... as business becomes even more of a geopolitical battlefield. Green energy and electric vehicle firms have more opportunities now than fuel power sources. By. As 2021 approaches, here are top geopolitical and security trends to follow in 2021. 1 Fights over vaccines. A potential victory for the opposition will elevate political and macro-economic risks. People are optimistic that life will be back to normal. Yesterday, HCSS and the Clingendael Institute presented their Strategic Monitor, “Geopolitical Genesis: Dutch Foreign and Security Policy in a Post-COVID World”, providing insight into trends and developments in world politics. The global COVID-19 situation, rollout of vaccines, geopolitical trends, Union Budget and economic recovery would be the major factors driving investor sentiments in 2021 … Broader political and policy stability remains unlikely, but businesses should start assessing the potential outcomes of various succession scenarios. Companies should assess the implications of the election result on Argentina’s policy and regulatory volatility, especially in relation to subsidies and price controls.